Dunfermline 2 Hibernian 2

Dunfermline continued their poor defensive record at home this season but managed to come from two goals behind to salvage a point. It was a case of poor defending, as opposed to devastating attacking play, which brought about the four goals in this match.

Dunfermline made one change to the side that lost 3-2 away to Kilmarnock last week, replacing the injured Craig Easton with youth academy product Ryan Thomson. For the first time this season, Jim McIntyre chose to go with 4-1-4-1 at home – his preferred formation away from home – abandoning his usual 4-4-2.

Colin Calderwood welcomed former-Hearts assistant Billy Brown to his dugout for the first time and stuck with the 4-4-2 used in recent weeks. Callum Booth returned at left-back in place of the injured Ian Murray and Leigh Griffiths was given his first start at the expense of Junior Agogo.

The only difference in terms of shape was to move Ivan Sproule over to the left and Martin Scott to the right. With only one natural winger, this gave the Hibernian midfield a lopsided shape similar to that used by Neil Lennon’s Celtic.

The initial strategies of the sides were in stark contrast to one another. Whereas the home side looked to build from the back and work the ball through midfield, where they had a man advantage, Hibernian looked to hit the forwards quickly with long balls.

With the pace of Griffiths and Sproule up against the slow back four of Dunfermline, a better strategy would surely have been to retain possession, tempt their opponents out and then exploit the space in behind. However, when Hibernian’s play did eventually settle and they attempted to play the ball from the back themselves, they looked short of options and would eventually revert back to long, direct passes.

Hibernian’s left-hand side

Readers of this blog will be aware that Hibernian have been particularly vulnerable down their left side this season and today was no different. The Dunfermline manager obviously identified this as a potential weakness but rather than double up on the off-form Booth, his strategy was to instruct Danny Graham to drift into central areas, both with and without the ball, luring Booth out of position and using Jason Thomson on the overlap.

Even though none of the Dunfermline goals came directly from this side, they created a number of chances from this area that should have led to goals. To mention just two, Jason Thomson hit the side netting midway through the first half when he should have cut the ball back for a tap-in and Graham should have taken a shot at goal rather than cut it back, when he found himself in-behind Booth.

Again, I do not wish to single out Booth, he wasn’t helped much by Sproule - who failed to track back on a few occasions - but it was another poor performance from the young left-back.

Graham drifting into the centre of the pitch was a key feature of Dunfermline’s attacking play, which overloaded the centre of the pitch to the home side’s advantage. He weaved in and out of the Hibernian midfield consistently which should have earned him the man-of-the-match award – strangely, it was awarded to Ryan Thomson, who played well but was nowhere near the best player on the pitch.

Hibernian took the lead late-on in an even first half – both sides had their spells of possession and dominance – when Sproule finished off a quick move after a Richie Towell throw-in. The goal was very well taken but was indicative of the poor defending Dunfermline have displayed this season.

Second half

Hibernian emerged from the break in a 4-3-3 formation with Scott now in central midfield, rather than tucked in on the right side, and Griffiths moving over to the right of an attacking trident.

The switch appeared to suit the away side as they now matched Dunfermline man-for-man in the centre of the pitch and, further, it led to Garry O’Connor and Griffiths combining for the first time in the match.

The pair linked up minutes after the restart to force Paul Gallacher into a smart save and they combined once more to give Hibernian a two-goal lead after fifty-one minutes. Griffiths flicked a long punt from Graham Stack on to O’Connor and the former-Birmingham striker was afforded too much space to turn and unleash a deflected strike towards goal.

Hibernian’s two-goal advantage lasted all of fourteen seconds, however, as Graham was again allowed to drift inside, collect the ball and drive towards goal. His through ball was collected by Ryan Thomson, after Paul Hanlon lamely allowed the ball to simply bounce off him, and he knocked the ball past the advancing Stack.


Calderwood’s substitutions

After a brief feeling of comfort, the match was now Hibernian’s to throw away.

This was not helped by Calderwood’s strange choice of substitutions on the hour mark. It was not so much the players that were withdrawn but the players that were introduced and the resultant switch back to a 4-4-2 that was their downfall. O’Connor, possibly due to a knock sustained when challenged by Gallacher, and Griffiths, who is short of match-fitness, were taken off and replaced by Agogo and Akpo Sodje.

From then on Hibernian, again, found themselves a man short in the centre of the pitch and, as well as this, were now impotent in attack. Alex Keddie and Andy Dowie dealt far more comfortably with the two stocky strikers than they had with Griffiths and O’Connor.

Thus, it was no surprise when Dunfermline equalised through a Paul Hanlon own goal. Joe Cardle cut in from the left and saw his shot saved by Stack, but the ball fell to Jason Thomson in the box and his cross/miscued shot was knocked into his own net by the hapless defender.

Dunfermline continued to pile on the pressure but were unable to find a winner.

Conclusion

Today was a case of previous trends continuing to occur, for both sides.

The left side of Hibernian continues to be an issue, as does their manager’s apparent lack of a coherent strategy. His move to a 4-3-3 at the beginning of the second half looked to have won the game for his side but the introduction of Sodje and Agogo and subsequent move back to a 4-4-2 contributed to their capitulation.

Dunfermline have now conceded nine goals in four home matches, which goes a long way to explaining why their only victories have come away from home. Nonetheless, McIntyre deserves some credit for the way his side have applied themselves at the other end of the pitch. Two goals today takes their total goals at home to seven and, furthermore, their industrious midfield allows Cardle and Graham to join in attacks. On this form the pair will cause problems for most SPL defences they face.

However, as McIntyre himself has pointed out, he cannot expect his forwards to score four goals every encounter in order to win matches.

Hearts 2 Hibernian 0

Hearts deservedly defeated a toothless Hibernian side in the first Edinburgh derby of the season.  Even though the football on display was not of the highest quality, it was an intriguing ninety minutes with plenty of commitment from both sets of players.

Paulo Sergio made eight changes from the 0-0 draw at White Hart Lane but only one change from their previous league outing.  Ian Black returned from suspension and took his place in centre midfield alongside David Obua and Adrian Mrowiec.  The inclusion of Obua suggested a 4-2-3-1 formation, however, the Ugandan international was deployed in a more reserved role in a tight central midfield three, meaning that the home side lined up 4-3-3.

Colin Calderwood made three changes from the league defeat to St. Mirren last week, dropping David Wotherspoon, Viktor Palsson and David Stephens in favour of Sean O’Hanlon, Junior Agogo and new loan signing Richie Towell.  There was also a change in shape for the Easter Road side as Matt Thornhill was moved out to the left of midfield in a 4-4-2 formation.

The respective shapes meant that Hearts enjoyed an extra man in the centre of midfield.  Further, their full-backs pushed on at every opportunity, forcing Thornhill and Ivan Sproule into defensive duties for most of the first half.  The result was that Hearts edged possession.

Hearts focus down the left but get joy down the right

It is clear that the new manager is trying to instil a pass-from-the-back approach at Tynecastle, equally clear that some of the players aren’t suited to it and are finding it difficult to shake off their old habit of lumping the ball down the channels.

Club captain Marius Zaliukas, no stranger to the odd howler, was guilty of a few stray passes in the first half and Andy Webster, his central defensive partner, hit a few high, inaccurate passes in the direction of Andy Driver.

The exclusion of John Sutton, even from a place on the bench, is further evidence that Sergio is sceptical of fielding a target man as his lone striker and that he wishes his side to retain possession and create opportunities through passing moves, as opposed to feeding off knock-downs and second balls.

Conversely Hibernian took a direct approach, choosing to field two big strikers that they were all too happy to hit with long, direct passes.  Agogo would look to drop off into space but his movement was tracked, more often than not, by Mrowiec.

The Hibs front two pressed the Hearts defenders, forcing them into the mistakes referred to above, although the rest of the side failed to follow suit.  This meant that large gaps appeared between the Hibs front two and back eight, another reason why Hearts made better use of their possession.

Hearts attempted to play the ball to Driver at every opportunity and get him running at Towell.  He rarely got the better of the Hibs right-back however, as Hearts struggled to create anything clear cut.

The teams had largely cancelled each other out – with Hibs missing the best chance of the half through Garry O’Connor – until around five minutes before half-time when a mistake allowed Hearts to take the lead.

Callum Booth tried to pick out Thornhill inside his own half.  The pass wasn’t the greatest but the recipient was also at fault and allowed Jamie Hamill to disposes him before exchanging passes with Ian Black and cutting the ball back for Ryan Stevenson who finished from seven yards.

Further blame can be thrown the way of Isaiah Osbourne who made little attempt to track Stevenson’s run.

Second half

Hibernian emerged from the second half a different side.  Calderwood moved Sproule to just behind the front two and Thornhill to the right in a midfield diamond formation.  With the Hibernian full-backs pushing on for the first time in the match, they now enjoyed a man advantage in the midfield zone.

For the best part of ten minutes they had Hearts on the ropes, however, as soon as the home side created their first chance of the half, the momentum again swung their way.  From then on there was only ever going to be one winner.

The advantage of enjoying an extra man in the centre of midfield, via a diamond formation, was outweighed by the formation’s major flaw.  The narrow nature of the midfield means that the full-backs become exposed when defending.  With the wide players Hearts possess, and the attacking nature of their full-backs, along with the poor form of Callum Booth so far this season, it was no surprise that Hearts created several opportunities down the Hibs left-hand side.

Three chances in quick succession were created down this side: Booth was nowhere to be seen when Stephen Elliott forced Graham Stack into a save; Stevenson then got in behind the same player to cut back for Elliott, who this time hit the post; and finally Hamill wasted an opportunity by electing to shoot when he should have cut the ball back for a tap in.

Calderwood responded by withdrawing Sproule and Agogo for Akpo Sodje and Leigh Griffiths on the hour mark, moving to a 4-3-3 formation.  The difference between the 4-3-3 formation of Hearts and that of Hibernian was that Hearts’ wide players are more naturally wide players/midfielders who looked to track back.  Hibernian’s were strikers who stayed in attack waiting for their side to work the ball forward.

Hearts increased their lead minutes later when Webster headed in a Hamill corner, an attack that again originated down the Hibs left side, although on this occasion the blame cannot be directed towards Booth.

Conclusion

Yet another comfortable victory for Hearts in the Edinburgh derby.  The home side certainly weren’t at their best but were up against a side devoid of confidence and, it seems, any kind of coherent strategy.

Against Kilmarnock, two of the four goals Hibernian conceded were a direct result of crosses from the right and in this match; it was again their main weakness.  Booth was partly at fault for the opening goal but his second half performance was as much down to his manager’s decision to leave him exposed after the change in formation.

After all the pre-Towell talk of Hibernian requiring a right-back, it now seems that the opposite side needs to be addressed.

Hearts’ new approach under Paulo Sergio is beginning to take shape although it is yet to be seen whether or not the players’ mentality can be altered to fit how he wants the side to play.  The centre-backs are not the best ball-players and the lack of a deep-lying playmaker to aid transitions to attack may also be detrimental.

Obua was played in a deeper role and had a decent match but has failed to hit anything near a good run of form in his three years at the club.  Scott Robinson may possess the required attributes but is still largely untried as a first team regular.

Kilmarnock 4 Hibernian 1

Kilmarnock ran out comfortable 4-1 winners against a Hibs side that competed for large parts of the match and were perhaps unlucky to lose by such a margin given their performance.  However, they were naive defensively, unsurprisingly given the average age of their back four was just twenty-years-old.

Both sides lined up in similar formations.  Kenny Shiels replaced James Fowler and Ben Hutchinson with David Silva and Paul Heffernan in a 4-4-1-1-cum-4-2-3-1 formation.  Silva and James Dayton were deployed as inverted wingers either side of Heffernan, with Gary Harkins the main playmaker and more advanced of the central midfield three.

Colin Calderwood lined his side up in his familiar 4-2-3-1 system and kept the same personnel that managed to secure the clubs’ first ever victory in Inverness.

Both sides looked to use their wingers as much as possible but it was Silva and Dayton from the home side that were the more deadly.  One other noticeable difference between the sides, in an attacking sense, was that, in Harkins, Kilmarnock had a genuine playmaker in the centre of the pitch.  His opposite number, Matt Thornhill, although a decent player, doesn’t seem to possess the same penetrative passing or ability to find space between the lines.

Killie pass from the back, Hibs press high

As has become custom for Kilmarnock, their centre backs would drop deep and wide when Cammy Bell had the ball, look to receive a short pass from the Kilmarnock goalkeeper and play out from the back.  This can be a high risk strategy and in the first half, Kilmarnock experienced both the benefits and detriments of the approach.

With only three minutes played, the ball was passed along the Kilmarnock back line to Rory McKeown.  He made a driving run down the left before curling a direct pass over the top of the Hibs defence and into the path of Heffernan.  The Irishman got the ball before the on-rushing Graham Stack to knock the ball through the goalkeeper’s legs.

One way to counter against a side that likes to play the ball out patiently from the back is to press high up the pitch and try to force errors, intercept the ball or else force the side to play it long.  The problem is that this in turn carries its own risks.  In order to remain compact, pressing high requires the side to hold a high defensive line.  This leaves the side in question vulnerable to balls over the top and the like, more so when the opposing side posses a bit of pace in attack.  The disappointing thing from a Hibernian perspective is that Heffernan does not seem to be the quickest and the goal must go down as a positional error from Paul Hanlon.

Ten minutes later Hibs responded, exposing the dangers of Kilmarnock’s strategy.  A Ryan O’Leary pass was intercepted by Lewis Stevenson, the ball was then worked to Garry O’Conner, who cut into the box and finished in off the post with a lovely chip with the outside of his boot.

There were a few other moments during the match, especially in the first half, where Kilmarnock lived dangerously, forming triangles and passing the ball in and around their own box.  After a few of these nervy moments, Kilmarnock began to employ a slightly more direct approach until they took the lead through a Hanlon own-goal after some excellent wing-play from Dayton on the right.

Second half

Calderwood switched things at half-time, bringing on Junior Agogo and Isaiah Osbourne for their Hibernian debuts.  Thornhill and Stevenson were the players replaced as Hibs moved to a 4-4-1-1 formation with Agogo just off O’Connor in attack.

The Hibernian manager had obviously noticed how vulnerable Kilmarnock had been when playing out from the back at times and perhaps thought that two strikers would put the centre-backs under even more pressure.  With the Kilmarnock full-backs pushing on, they could still be picked up by two wide men in Hibs’ midfield four, leaving a 2v2 situation at the back.

The changes worked for Hibs and they kept Kilmarnock in their own half for the majority of the first twenty minutes of the second half, while creating a few opportunities.  Osbourne added much to the Hibs midfield, both in a defensive and attacking sense, and looks like he may be a good acquisition for the Easter Road side.

The first two attacks Kilmarnock managed in the second half led to goals and secured the victory.  The first saw Danny Buijs break from his right-back area to collect the ball before being felled by Wotherspoon at the edge of the Hibernian box.  Dayton duly dispatched the free kick past the helpless Stack.

Minutes later the same pair combined again, this time Dayton fed Buijs on the overlap and his near-post cross was finished by the unmarked Heffernan for his second of the match.  The Irishman then missed a glorious opportunity to claim his hat-trick late in the game when he hit the bar from three yards out.

Conclusion

Both sides deployed high risk strategies – Kilmarnock’s passing from the back; Hibs’ high defensive line – and both succumbed to these risks – Kilmarnock conceded when trying to play out from defence, Hibs conceded two first half goals from poor defending while holding a high defensive line.

However, it was Kilmarnock who came out victorious, due in part to some excellent wing-play, but also due to some terrible defending from the away side.  An experienced head is definitely needed for the Hibs back line, thus the return of Sean O’Hanlon from injury cannot come quick enough for Calderwood.

The new signings swung the momentum in Hibs’ favour when introduced at half-time and both look to be decent acquisitions.  The main worry continues to be the manager himself, again uninspiring in his pre-match interview and again downbeat about the quality of his squad post-match.

Kenny Shiels secured his first victory as Kilmarnock manager and, in contrast to Calderwood, remained confident in both his own ability and that of his squad during that difficult run.

The strategy to play the ball out patiently, given the quality (or lack of quality) they possess remains a risky one.  They conceded once as a consequence and experience a few other close-calls that could have led to them conceding more.

At the other end they got the most out of their wingers, especially Dayton, who took advantage of the forward runs of Callum Booth from the Hibernian left-back area and played a part in three of his side’s four goals

.

Kilmarnock were some peoples' (including my) tip for relegation this year but if they play like this every week they will find themselves fighting for a top six finish again come the end of the season.

Five things to take from Sunday's Edinburgh derby

In what was surely the final Edinburgh derby of the season, ten-man Hearts came from behind to salvage a well deserved point.  Hibernian extended their unbeaten run to seven matches although will be disappointed not to have taken all three points.

Ryan Stevenson can play as a striker, as long as you don’t expect him to win an aerial battle

It was surprising to see Stevenson again take up a striking role for Hearts.  The former Ayr United midfielder was deployed as an auxiliary striker in the 1-0 win over Rangers in January but looked out of his depth on that occasion.  The difference on Sunday was that he was joined in attack by Stephen Elliott in a 4-4-2/4-2-4 formation.

Furthermore, and again unlike during the victory over Rangers, the strategy of Hearts was to move the ball quickly towards Andy Driver and David Templeton, who took up advanced positions on either wing, and not to hit long, direct passes towards the edge of the box.  Hearts have struggled to fill the void left by long-term absentee Kevin Kyle, especially in matches where they have a tendency to, or are forced to play long ball.

Stevenson opened the scoring in the first half with a control and finish that any seasoned SPL striker would be proud of.  Not only this, he also dropped deep earlier in the move to link play.  As well as this, Stevenson relentlessly closed down the Hibs defence and was one of the start performers on the day.

Stephen Elliott is definitely better with a strike partner

Relatedly, the Hearts performance in the first thirty minutes showed that Elliott is much better when not used as a lone-striker.  Stevenson’s presence in attack and the advanced positions taken up by Driver and Templeton meant that Hearts effectively lined up man-for-man against the Hibs defence.  Consequently, Elliott was afforded more space than usual and his movement between the lines and the inside channels caused the Hibs defenders many problems.  Early in the match he found himself on the end of a few well worked moves, one of which he should have scored, another that should have earned his side a penalty.

After the red card, Elliott was moved to the right side of midfield in a 4-4-1 formation.  He continued to perform impressively, although Hearts inevitably created less and most of his work was defensive in nature.  He was left unmarked for the equalising goal after some poor set-piece defending from the home side yet finished well.

Hibs failed to take advantage of their numerical advantage in midfield

Hibs started the match with a numerical advantage in central midfield.  Even before the ordering off of Marius Zaliukas, there were times when Hibs had a 3v2, and sometimes even a 4v2, advantage in the centre of the pitch.  Despite this, and perhaps counterintuitively, Hearts dominated.  Jim Jefferies’s side started with two deep-lying central midfielders and defended the area while avoiding playing through it.

Therefore, on paper at least, Victor Palsson, Liam Miller and Matt Thornhill should have dominated the central areas.  However, they failed stamp their authority on the match until the second half when Hearts were down to ten men and were more inclined to sit nine men behind the ball.

Thus, the three main reasons for Hibs failing to dominate the midfield early in the match were: (i) they failed play the ball through the area effectively, (ii) Hearts defended the area well and avoided playing through it themselves and, (iii) Elliot and Stevenson showed a willingness to defend from the front and press Hibs high up the pitch.  There was no such willingness from the Hibs strikers.

Hibs looked better with wide men in advanced areas

Admittedly it is more difficult to judge when possessing a numerical advantage, however, Hibs were much more dangerous in the second half when Ricardo Vaz Te was introduced in place of Martin Scott.  Hibs had started in their familiar 4-1-3-2 formation (although it appeared to be more like a 4-4-2 diamond formation with Thornhill more advanced than Miller has been in the same role recently) but moved to a more expansive 4-2-3-1 after the break.  Vaz Te took up a right-wing role, with Derek Riordan moving to the left in a fluid front five and Hibs instantly improved.

The switch meant that Hibs no longer relied solely on their full-backs for width.  Callum Booth managed to get forward for most of the match from left-back whereas Richie Towell struggled to do the same on the opposite flank.  Not until the second half did Richie Towell regularly find himself in possession in an advanced area, although this was partially down to Driver’s frequent drifting into the centre, leaving plenty of space on that side.

What should have been the winning goal for Hibs came from the right-hand side and involved Towell.  By this time he was linking up with Wotherspoon down the right and Vaz Te had moved to just off Akpo Sodje in attack.  With players like this available to Calderwood, a  4-2-3-1 or similar variant certainly an option for Hibs.

Hibs will be fine under Colin Calderwood

Much doubt was cast over Calderwood after a terrible run of results, including a Scottish Cup exit at the hands of Ayr United shortly after taking over.  He inherited a side low in confidence before making six new signings in January.  He has now not only steadied the ship, but also has everyone involved with the club looking up rather than down the table.

Their recent run, although admirable, had until Sunday come against teams mostly from the bottom six.  Seven games without defeat, including matches against Kilmarnock and Hearts, looks a lot more impressive.  To expect to end the season in the top six would be overly-optimistic, although they should have no problems finishing in the top half of the table next season.

Calderwood was appointed at Easter Road with an impressive record in the English lower leagues behind him.  Those who prematurely, even in the merry-go-round era of football management, called for Calderwood to be relieved of his duties after two wins in his first fourteen matches in charge must surely now recognise his pedigree.  In the space of a few months and with very little money, he carried out effective business in a notoriously difficult January transfer market.  He has now turned a side fighting relegation into one that has now reached the form the supporters expect.

Hibernian v Hearts preview

Tom Hill from The Scottish Football Blog and I wote separate pieces for today's Edinburgh Derby. The first part, written by Tom, is from the Hibs perspective.  The second part was written by myself.  My secret is out.

Please follow the link above and check out Tom's blog.

Edinburgh Derby Preview: A Hibs Perspective
 

Colin Calderwood recently the had pleasure of meeting me for the first time.

Truth be told, I’d possibly over indulged. 

Drink beer and wine you'll feel fine. But when you drink wine and beer you'll feel queer. 

Quite.

So my attempts to congratulate him on Hibs’ recent run of form possibly sounded a little like:

“See me, Col, I’m a bit pished.”

But he’s a very approachable chap, smiled benignly and said that he had much work still to do.

And indeed he does.

His tenure at Hibs has been short but not without challenges. He took over a failing team and it continued to fail.

Faced with both a bleak league table and a squad that clearly did not impress him, he then had to use the transfer window to halt a decline that was beginning to look perilously like a manifesto for relegation.

He pulled that off. Hibs have won five of their last six games, only a draw at St Johnstone denying them 18 points from 18.

That’s impressive. More so when we consider that this has been done with a team that bears little resemblance to the one John Hughes started the season with.

It’s quite unusual in Scottish football for a manager to scrape together such a transformation in the January transfer window. It’s unheard of at Easter Road.

So Calderwood has laid aside his faltering start, begun to sweep out the mess left by his predecessor and taken some steps towards convincing the fans that here is a manager who can prosper at a club that has recently shown a remarkable intolerance to any perceived weaknesses in the dugout.

As a Hibs fan all of this heartens me.

And that should mean I’m feeling reasonably confident about Sunday’s derby.

Well, to an extent.

Partly my trepidation comes from too much experience of Hearts-ache. Partly it’s because I am, by nature, predisposed to take a bleak view of the world and everyone and everything that’s in it.

Those are general, lasting reasons for a sense of pre-derby misgiving.

There are also more pressing concerns for Sunday.

The fact that Hibs haven’t played a competitive game since March 5th means, at the very least, they are going into this one short of match practice or any real guide to their form. That could either be a good thing or a bad thing.

The six game undefeated run has been welcome, it’s been enjoyable and calmed talk of a club in crisis.

But Kilmarnock are the highest placed side to have been beaten. There’s been no test against the Old Firm, no measure of progress against a form team like Dundee United.

A new look side has done well to win so many games as they searched for cohesion and understanding in the squad.

Yet even taking into account the slight halt to Hearts’ progress as they find themselves bogged down in the no man’s land of third place, a derby represents a completely different challenge for Hibs.

They could well prove up to that task but it remains something of a step into the unknown.

Hearts have also won the last four of these clashes and are now undefeated in six. We have to go back to Derek Riordan’s late penalty at Tynecastle in May 2009 for the last Hibs win.

All of which serves to dampen my ardour for proceedings. And yet...

Certainly I’d be disappointed and a touch surprised if Hibs appear as devoid of intent and purpose as they have done in the previous two clashes this season.

This is, for all that they’re relatively untested, a Hibs team with more edge, more thrust and an added stomach for the fight. Hearts should find more resistance as they attempt to impose themselves on Easter Road.

In Richie Towell and Callum Booth the home side have full backs who are capable of giving Hearts’ midfielders and defence pause for thought. Akpo Sodje gives an added dimension in attack, Derek Riordan retains a certain enigmatic quality.

Victor Palsson’s injury in Iceland’s under-21 clash against England is a concern. He’s become a combative component of a midfield that Calderwood has transformed into a more formidable unit. Here’s a 19 year old who does not look like an Edinburgh derby would give him any reason to be fazed.

It’s a different Hibs, a better Hibs.

All of this leaves me searching for a prediction. Into the mix I must throw Hibs’ improvement, Hearts’ slight slips, Hibs’ inactivity, my own pessimism, Hibs’ new faces and the added pressures and dig of a derby clash.

Which, when processed, means?

I really don’t know. I expect this one to be close. I don’t expect Hearts to be able to dictate the way they did earlier in the season.

These are games that rarely throw up treats for the neutral footballing aesthete. If the sides are more evenly matched then we might find the game turning on an individual contribution, be it a flash of brilliance, an honest mistake or a moment of madness.

And that can make a game something of a lottery.

Which drags me inexorably towards predicting a draw. With the proviso that either team could sneak this one by the odd goal.

Apologies if that’s about as decisive as a tactics talk from John Hughes. But there we have it.

I’m feeling sick with nerves already.

Edinburgh Derby Preview: A Hearts Perspective

After two solid months of nothing but Old Firm matches, attention now turns to Easter Road for Scotland’s real showcase football match.  Hearts will be looking to make it five wins in-a-row against their Edinburgh rivals but will surely face a sterner test this time around from a resurgent Hibs team.

Hearts without a number of players

Jim Jefferies is without a number of key players heading into Sunday’s match.  Eggert Jonsson and Adrian Mrowiec are suspended; Kevin Kyle, Lee Wallace and Calum Elliot are all out injured, whereas Rudi Skacel, Marius Zaliukas and Suso Santana are doubts.  Consequently, Hearts find themselves light in almost every area of the pitch.

Whereas Hibs now have a settled back four, the Hearts defence has chopped and changed in recent weeks.  Full-back has proved to be a problem position all season.  Ruben Palazuelos has deputised adequately for long-term absentee Lee Wallace at left-back but his services would have been more beneficial in the centre of midfield due to the lack of options there.

Right-back has been more of an issue and with Jonsson suspended, Craig Thomson looks set to start.  Although a full-back by trade, Thomson has looked unsteady defensively this season and has shown that his best qualities lie in deliveries into the box, be it from open play or from dead ball situations.  He started on the right-wing against Dundee United recently but was moved back to his natural position as a consequence of the erratic and reckless performance of Ismael Bouzid. 

No matter who starts, right-back is a weak spot in the Hearts back four, which will otherwise consist of a central defensive pairing of Andy Webster and Marius Zaliukas, should the Lithuanian pass fit.

Formation and the midfield battle

At half time in their most recent match, and trailing 1-0 at home to St. Mirren, Jefferies switched his side to a 4-4-2, sacrificing holding midfielder Mrowiec in favour of another striker.  Hearts went on to win the match 3-2, however, it would mistaken to deduce from this that they will start with four in midfield and two up front on Sunday.

Hearts were chasing the game and required a dramatic change in approach after an inept first forty-five minutes.  Lining-up with a midfield of Skacel and Black flanked by two wingers would inevitably lead to Hearts losing the midfield battle as Hibs have vastly improved in this area since the last time the sides met.

The starting position of Colin Calderwood’s side sees them line-up in a narrow 4-1-3-2 formation, which becomes a  4-2-3-1 of sorts when Martin Scott pushes on, David Wotherspoon pulls wide right and Derek Riordan drops deep and wide left.  Victor Palsson is deployed as a regista and is vital to Calderwood’s system.  He is also a doubt for Sunday but should he and Skacel overcome their knocks, then this will be one of the game’s key battles.  As well as dictating play from deep, Palsson will be tasked of keeping Skacel quiet, a tactic that a few other sides have successfully employed against Hearts in recent months.

From a Hearts perspective, Skacel is expected to not only create and score goals, but, being in that area of the pitch, to pay close attention to Palsson when not in possession.  Much like the way he nullified the threat of Liam Miller in Hearts’ 2-0 victory at Easter Road earlier in the season.

Martin Scott is another key man in the Hibs midfield.  His energy is exceptional, he looks like he can score goals and is prepared to graft and do the dirty work.  I fear that the central midfield of Hearts, which will likely consist of Black and Stevenson as the holding pair with Skacel in a more advanced position, will be overrun and Hibs will dominate as a consequence.

Goals a worry for Hearts

Despite three goals in their most recent outing, Hearts have struggled for to find the net of late, managing only five in the eight matches previous to the victory over St. Mirren.  The prolonged absence of Kevin Kyle has left Hearts bereft of an adequate target man.  When at their peak this season, the midfield runners of Hearts thrived on Kyle’s ability to hold the ball up and link play.

Hearts have struggled to fill the position since his absence.  Stephen Elliott has been marginally better than the other aspirants and will likely start.  He has displayed an ability to score a few goals despite not being entirely suited to a lone-striking role.  What can be frustrating to watch is when Hearts ignore the obvious mismatch in height between Elliott and most central defenders, yet insist on lumping long balls towards him.

In attack for Hibs, Ricadro Vaz Te looks to be an astute acquisition for Hibs although he has struggled for match fitness.  Even more so now that Hibs have just completed an entire month without a competitive match.  Whether he or Akpo Sodje start, the Hibs attack is an entirely different proposition than in recent Edinburgh derbies.  Derek Riordan was isolated as a lone-striker in Hearts’ 2-0 win at Easter Road earlier in the season and Valdas Trayks was similarly anonymous in the same role at Tynecastle on New Year’s Day.

Prediction

Hibs are the form side going into the match, unbeaten in the last six, even though five of these matches have been against sides in the bottom six.  Nevertheless, how the break has affected Hibs will go a long way to determining the outcome of the match.  It will be interesting to see whether a month without a competitive fixture will have a detrimental effect on them or not.

The home side have a settled back four now, Booth and Towell look dangerous when they push on and Stephen Elliott may struggle to get an inch from Dickoh and Hanlon.  Without Mrowiec and Jonsson, and with Palazuelos required at left-back, Hearts look weak in the centre of the pitch and I expect Palsson, Scott and Miller to dominate.

Hearts have a lot of players missing and will likely get plenty of men behind the ball and attempt to hit on the break, and if players like Templeton, Skacel and Driver hit form, then Hearts always have a chance of scoring.

1-1.